Cards Notebook: Present and future payrolls, the case for a six-man rotation in St. Louis, checking in on the Cubs

Let's hit multiple topics in this episode of Birdy Work

Here’s what’s on my mind as we work our way toward spring-training report dates …

Future payroll thoughts

The Cardinals have yet to spend a single dime – or nickel or tuppence or penny! – on a free agent this offseason. This is not really a point of distinction in the NL Central, in which other teams have behaved similarly, but it’s notable just the same. This is also not surprising. We knew this would be a winter of payroll disinvestment because of the organizational reset and emphasis on rebuilding the neglected player-development apparatus. Right now, Roster Resource estimates the Cardinals have a Competitive Balance Tax payroll (meaning the entire 40-player roster plus estimated benefits costs) for 2025 of $163 million or so. That’s down sharply from last year, in which the Cardinals crossed the $200 million threshold in CBT payroll for the first time ever. The savings have come by letting Paul Goldschmidt walk and by declining club options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton. If their efforts to trade Nolan Arenado are realized, then that figure will come down much further.

All of this isn’t a complaint on my part. I think it’s appropriate to bid adieu to those aforenamed veterans so as to open up regular, every-day roles for the younger contributors who are now the organizational focus. Rather, my interest is in the future and what the DeWitts will do when the time comes to spend again. Speaking of which, here’s what Bill DeWitt III said during the recent Winter Warm-Up about the matter of future roster investments, via Derrick Goold at the P-D:

“Even if we tried to pull the wool over our fans’ eyes, it would have lasted maybe a second. They understand what’s going on. They understand the cycles of professional sports, and they understand, I think, where we are in the cycle. (A question) mentioned the word ‘rebuild.’ I think that word doesn’t apply in this case. Pick your ‘re-’ word. Reset. Renewal. Whatever. Because we have a nice young core of players, I think we really have to clear the path for playing time for all of them so we know what we have, and we properly identify the guys who are going to be the foundation for our future success. Then we can start adding back.

“Until then, I think our fans know exactly what we’re trying to do, and hopefully they’re on board with it and they’ll hang in there with us.”

Emphasis mine, but I’m willing to share it. I parse the bolded part of his words – “Then we can start adding back” – as something close to a promise that payroll will return to competitive levels once the reset is complete. That should mean a payroll at the back end of the top 10. No, the Cardinals, particularly in the post-RSN era, aren’t going to spend at the level of the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Phillies and their more sure-footed broadcast situations. The same goes for the Red Sox and Cubs at times when those two ownership groups can be bothered to care (more on the Cubs below). Maybe you throw the Giants in that grouping. Whatever the case, a top-10 payroll isn’t too much to ask of the DeWitts, and indeed it’s been part of the semi-recent history as owners.

There’s another layer to this, and again it has to do with the aforementioned post-RSN era. We’re entering a phase in which teams are going to have to go out and earn fans’ business for the first time in several years. Yes, the Cardinals tie their spending to gate receipts, at least outwardly, and they’re anticipating some decline on this front for 2025. At the same time, the club has a path to grow their broadcast revenues via direct-to-consumer streaming subscriptions that aren’t subject to local blackouts. You’re not going to get those turnstiles clicking and those monthly broadcast subs added to carts unless the on-field product is appealing. The latter is a layer of ownership incentive that’s been absent for too long. The ownership class in MLB, particularly in markets like Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, has gotten way too comfortable with the money they’ve gotten merely for existing. The new broadcast era won’t change that entirely, but it should help. Any such incentives are a welcome thing for fans, and that goes for us in the Cardinals camp, too. I understand the current retrenchment, but what happens going into the 2026 season and beyond in terms of payroll will be enlightening. Let’s hold them to their words.

What about a six-man rotation?